Upset Avoided
In one corner, Ralf Rangnick's Manchester United and in the other plucky underdog Crystal Palace. With no expectations of an upset, the media narratives were already set in stone. The scene was set for a squash match.
Manchester United, who despite little to no training time with their new coach, would be "reinvigorated", with various former-United players-turned-pundits ready to shower praise on a team and players
they said hadn't measured up to their lofty standards, only weeks before.
The sentiment that drove this club to seek European Super League riches is that teams like Palace are mere jobbers to be brushed aside in exhibition fashion in front of a rotating tourist audience as an interlude between the "real" games.
Should they win, some oblique "gegenpressing" comments would be tweeted out as if Ronaldo occasionally closing down James Tomkins was the difference between victory and defeat for the media's protagonists.
Man United were not counter attacked on in a dangerous way once today, and that’s against a team who generally counter attack well. That’s the major change, from one training session ?and the biggest change from every other home game this season
— Adam Crafton (@AdamCrafton_) December 5, 2021
Thankfully for MoTD2, Crystal Palace put up a good fight but lay down at the correct time to gift United the victory.
At one end, Jordan Ayew, after back-to-back games of hard work and endeavour, poses the question of whether any of it matters if there isn't an end product. As talented a defensive winger as he is, he managed to evade both the goal and Marc Guéhi at the back post with Palace's only real chance all game.
At the other, Jeffrey Schlupp, after a passive midfield display all game, was slow to react to closing down Fred, only for the team to see yet another shot sail into the goal from outside the area.
Another defeat, yet again by a single goal, is incredibly tough to take especially given how hard the team had battled defensively. Half an eye will now be on the teams catching Palace up in the table.
Defending the Edge
In the 2019-20 season, Vicente Guaita was the key reason the team stayed in the division. His shot-stopping passed both the eye test and gained a stamp of approval from analytics companies alike.
His peak season was so good because he dealt with long-range shots on top of any reaction saves he would make. Facing 167 efforts, only two beat him, 1.2%. To highlight how good this was, Wayne Hennessey conceded twice from range against Liverpool in only three appearances in the same season.
In the following season, 11 beat Guaita from range, at a rate of 6.43%. In this, the tally is already at 7. Even though we can remove both the Iheanacho and Maupay goals as they were from 1vs1 situations, that still means 7.04% of all shots outside the box are resulting in goals.
Where does this leave Palace? Either the goals are written off as all being top finishes, Palace is failing to defend the edge of their box correctly, or the goalkeeper can no longer bail out the team as he regresses/ages.
Much like the issue with set pieces, which does include a long-range goal from Naby Keïta, it does show some tactical naivety when it comes to closing down. One that coaching should be fixing.
The xG Battle
For whatever it is worth, in the eyes of Opta and Statsbomb, Palace is slightly over-performing this season in front of goal - based on the chances they are creating, with 19 goals from ~17.0xG.
Take the Man City game on the counter. The team scored twice from the only two decent chances created from ~0.7xG. The game goes down as a great victory, and it was, but is it a sustainable process?
In many ways, this fixture against United followed a similar pattern. At one end, the dominant team had most chances, but Palace did well to restrict their quality by blocking and closing them down. In turn, Palace didn't do enough to justify the win.
Ayew will draw the (negative) headlines over whether he was clinical, but it isn't realistic to expect a team to snatch two away wins in Manchester by this course. But on balance, the draw was a fairer result.
Following three lean games for chances, Palace needs to force more shots, not rely on individual brilliance to overcome their lack. As suspected, opting from Schlupp over Hughes has meant Gallagher is now filling the "McArthur" role that removes an element of his attacking play.
Patrick Vieira has been a week behind in his thinking regarding team selection. Schlupp arguably was needed against Aston Villa rather than in the next game. Hughes' flashes against Leeds could at least have justified a half-time introduction at Old Trafford when Schlupp wasn't working.
Next Up: Everton (H)
For those with unsteady dispositions - look away now.
P16 - W2 - D8 - L6 - 14pts
Everton feels like a must-win game at Selhurst Park, but against a team, Palace has struggled to defeat since promotion. Assuming Rafa Benitez survives an MNF game against Arsenal, this is another vulnerable team heading into a fixture against Patrick Vieira's Crystal Palace.
Joachim Andersen's fitness carries a considerable amount of weight, if only due to the team's record without him in the side, despite James Tomkins' solid performances. Joel Ward will also be back, following his yellow-card suspension.