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Crystal Palace Transfers by Numbers: Finding a Striker

Written by Mihai Patrascu
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It is transfer season, and as described in our Winter Transfer Tracker, we are not expecting massive shifts in terms of Palace players but instead adding depth where it is lacking. One of the most critical positions currently lacking depth is striker. 

Christian Benteke, with 1.5 years left on his current deal, has led the line well this season, and Odsonne Édouard is an exciting proposition giving the club two solid options already. Yet, with Jean-Phillipe Mateta possibly returning to Mainz 05 early, the club will need a third string to its bow.

Eddie Nketiah and Borja Mayoral are two names heavily linked with the club. Rather than focus on those names, we wanted to look at the top European leagues to lesser-known names that could fit Patrick Vieira's system. 

 dieng banner

The Methodology

Since there is a limited number of free scouting tools available for the general public, we developed and encoded our own scouting tool using public information from fbref.com and transfermarkt.co.uk. This tool gives us total flexibility in searching parameters and player traits.

Palace should be looking for a young striker, ideally outside of their peak years (18-26), who has played roughly 25% of minutes this season (approx 400min) to give us a fair picture of their performances. 

Considering Christian Benteke as an example against other players at his position, he has a high number of touches in the opposition's area, no doubt helped by his aerial ability and physical presence.

His touches are in the 98th percentile, and his shot total is in the 92nd, showing he is converting those touches into shots. Yet, his on-target % is below average, and when you measure his (non-penalty) goals against the xG or quality of his chances, he isn't performing to the level the team would probably like as a pure goalscorer.

CB Stats

The good news is that chances are being created, and in all likelihood, Benteke himself will regress back to an on-target % nearer 40 than 30, like the rest of his career. 

Taking Palace's strikers into consideration, the team's strength and some potential player weaknesses, here is what we are looking at as an initial filter:

  • 400+ minutes played
  • Market value of £30m or less (per Transfermarkt)
  • Age of 18-26
  • More than 3 touches per 90min in the opp box
  • 40%+ on target percentage
  • xG value per shot on target of 0.1+ 
  • Goals - xG per 90min of -0.1 to 0.1

The xG values help show players who have been getting decent enough chances but aren't hugely over or underperforming at the moment.

The First Search

Like a lousy Scout on Football Manager, our first search gave us names of good players out of the team's reach. Memphis Depay (Barcelona), Patrik Schick (Bayer Leverkusen) and Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) may be good players but not realistic. Let's overlook Palace's failed past attempt to get Watkins whilst we are at it. 

Then by taking an estimated value of £10m, a more realistic budget for a third striker being £10-15m in Palace's world left us with 16 players from the Top Five Leagues in Europe:

striker search table

 We have chosen three to focus on these players that could best fit what Palace is looking for in a striker.

 

Bama Dieng - Marseille
(Transfermarkt Value - £7.20m)

 

The 21-year old Senegalese international from Marseille, Bamba Dieng, signed with Marseille in October 2020 from FC Diambars (Senegal). FC Diambars is a Senegalese club founded in 2003 by none other than Patrick Vieira.

Despite being only 5'8", Dieng has been used by Jorge Sampaoli as a pure striker for Marseille. He can also play on the left-wing as an inside forward, adding more versatility to his game.

Dieng has described himself as a true centre-forward. He was given a start against Monaco in September, with Milik and Payet both injured, scoring twice in Marseille's 2-0 win. 

Despite his excellent tally so far (4 goals in 14 appearances), he has played only 522 minutes (7 starts) with limited game time last season of 129 minutes - which makes it difficult to get a complete statistical profile. Yet, the signs are very encouraging if you take his age profile into account.

Despite his low number of minutes played, his impact has been stellar compared to other forwards in Ligue 1 this season. Using fbref's percentile tool looking at per 90min contributions, he is in the 98th percentile for non-penalty goals scored, 99th percentile for shots on target, 89th percentile for non-penalty xG / shot attempted, and 95th percentile for touches in the opposition box.

He takes high-quality shots (npxG/SaT 0.20), almost half of his shots are on target, and he takes nearly as many touches in the box as Benteke. His heatmap shows that he is willing to put in extra effort to track back in defence, despite his raw attacking ability.

dieng heatmap

Passing-wise, he is accurate enough (75.3% accuracy). Still, unsurprisingly for a player who shoots at a very high rate, he is often on the end of Marseille's chances rather than creating for his teammates.

He is accustomed to pressuring opponents, which is ideal for any Palace prospect, especially one that may need to occupy a wide position occasionally - with 14.4 pressures per90, successfully forcing a turnover on 3.22 of those average pressures.

Perhaps the most important guarantee of his quality comes from Jorge Sampaoli, who declared that Dieng "has a lot of explosiveness and a good quality of shot. He's a player with great potential for the club". 

To understand how important Marseille feel Dieng is, they have offered him an improved contract to match his first-team regular status and are said to prepare a contract extension in the summer.

As a prospect, Dieng is a projection, but as is Eddie Nketiah if you are looking for stats-based evidence. His size and style depart from other recent Crystal Palace forwards, as Dwight Gayle is the last natural "poacher" in stature to play for the club - but a variety to a forward line allows for different match-ups. 

Medium-risk in cost - he offers potentially high rewards.

 

Taiwo Awoniyi - Union Berlin
(Transfermarkt Value - £13.50m)

 

The second player on our list is Taiwo Awoniyi, a Nigerian striker who has taken Bundesliga by storm. The 24-year old has helped Union Berlin climb up to 7th this season with his 9 goals in 17 appearances in the league. 

Awoniyi started playing football in his native Nigeria for the Imperial Soccer Academy (2010), where he was scouted by Liverpool, who brought him to England in 2015. He did not make any appearances for Liverpool in his six years due to work permit issues and was loaned out to FSV Frankfurt, NEC Nijmegen, Mouscron, Gent, Mainz 05, and Union Berlin. Following his loan to Union Berlin, which ended in the summer of 2021, he made a permanent move to the German team for a fee of £6.5m.

As for strengths, whoscored.com notes his headed attempts, while we note his ability to pressure the opposition (14 pressures per90 in 2021-22), create shot chances for his teammates (1.90 per90 in 2021-22), dribble (2.65 per90, 1.36 successful), and carry the ball (23 per90). Moreover, he consistently takes high-quality shots (npxG/SaT 0.20), hitting the target on 42% of occasions.

His weaknesses are his passing, aerial duels, holding onto the ball, and defensive contributions. A closer look at his statistical profile supports these claims, as his passing accuracy is relatively poor (65.3% in 2021-22, 69.1% in 2020-21), his aerial duel win rate is low despite his size (29.8% in 2021-22). 

His season heatmap shows that he is unlikely to get back in defence or isn't asked to in his current role. Since he is also relatively young at 24, coaching can improve these perceived weaknesses in the right conditions. He operates in spaces across the front-line as an attacking player instead of a pure striker/target-man.

awoniyi heatmap

Nigeria has called up Awoniyi for the Africa Cup of Nations, which takes place in Cameroon between January and February, meaning that any deal would have to be made before he leaves or put off until the Summer window. In addition, it has been reported that Liverpool has inserted a 10% sell-on fee in their deal with Union Berlin, which could lead to an increased asking price. 

The most conventional forward of the three chosen here, Awoniyi comes with the highest price tag - especially given how recently he joined Union Berlin. 

 

Randal Kolo Muani - Nantes
(Transfermarkt Value - £10.80m)

The last entry in our list is Randal Kolo Muani, the 23-year old Nantes striker. Born and raised in France, Mouani made his professional debut for Nantes on November 30, 2018, in a 3-0 loss to Saint-Etienne in Ligue 1. He has since amassed 61 appearances for Les Canaris, scoring 16 goals. 

He has also made appearances for France U21 and the French Olympic Team at the Tokyo games. Mouani has scored 7 goals in 18 appearances this season, primarily playing as a forward, with a tendency to drift to the right-wing.

muani heatmap

In terms of strengths, we note his ability to track back in defence (as seen in his heatmap), dribble (2.57 dribbles attempted per90), draw fouls (2.63 per90, 91st percentile when compared to other forwards in Ligue 1 this season) - in keeping with Palace's wider players like Zaha and Ayew. 

He has had high-quality shots (npxG/SaT of 0.21) and despite being a low-volume shooter (1.50 per 90min) is clinical in front of goal. This season he has hit the target with 56% of all his shots and is effectively "scoring" 0.28 goals per shot he is taking. That efficiency as a goalscorer in the past two seasons is in addition to his primary function as a shot-creator for teammates (2.22 per 90min).

On the other hand, Muani displays poor passing accuracy overall (65.6%), is quite prone to turnovers (3.65 miscontrols and 3.05 dispossessions per90). This reflects a boom or bust player in attack, more expansive in passing attempts and dribbles. Despite his height (6'2"), his aerial duel win % is only 39.4%.

Muani is out of contract in June, making him a desirable target either now or in the summer - something that Dougie Freedman appears to value as a strategy for transfer leverage. 

 If Palace intends to discuss terms with him, they should be aware that the player has increased interest. It has been reported that Marseille has already made contact about signing as a free agent in the summer. At the same time, AC Milan, Tottenham, and Frankfurt are also rumoured to be interested. At Palace, Mouani would encounter numerous French-speaking players and staff, potentially making his move from France easier. 

Muani is an ideal fit for the current Palace system. He can slot into a wide role immediately, where there is healthy competition for places to eventually move into a striker role towards the end of Christian Benteke's contract. 

As an out-of-contract prospect, the transfer fee will be more cost-effective - but there will be competition.

 

Honourable Mentions

 

Two players who appeared in the initial searches and looked like tremendous prospects are Jonathan Burkhardt of Mainz 05 and Hugo Ekitike of Stade Reims. 

 They aren't candidates for a rotational/developmental striker spot at Selhurst Park as future German and French international prospects. But anyone who likes to keep track of the next-generation stars are players to look up.