Crystal Palace Transfers By Numbers: Lower League Bargains

Written by Mihai Patrascu

In the first article of our “Crystal Palace Transfers By Numbers” series we looked at potential strikers that could add depth to our squad. Our search focused on young, exciting prospects from the Big 5 Leagues, some of which will likely command high transfer fees in the summer.

 

Since Crystal Palace are a club operating on a tight budget, and the Sporting Director Dougie Freedman is known as a tough negotiator always looking for the next bargain, we thought of looking for cheap, young prospects a bit closer to home, in Leagues One (L1) and Two (L2).
Compared to our first search, we would not be limited by position, but rather looking overall throughout the two leagues to spot hidden gems.

Because fbref.com does not have detailed statistical information on players from L1 and L2, we used Smarterscout to generate a list of players of interest. Our primary filters were modified to accommodate a narrower age range (19-22), to account for regular playing time throughout the season (400 minutes played), as well as the indication that a player is a high performer compared to our benchmark league (i.e., the Premier League).

Our search yielded three results, which are shown in the table below.

 

Daniel Neil - Defensive Midfielder - Sunderland - League 1

The first entry in our list is Daniel Neil, Sunderland’s commanding defensive midfielder. Despite being only 20 years of age, Neil has already made himself a favourite at the Stadium of Light, amassing a total of 2 goals and 7 assists in 24 appearances this season, helping The Black Cats to second place. His season heatmap (left) shows that he occupies an area much like James McArthur (right), which would make him suitable for playing the “#8” role at Palace.

 

According to SofaScore and WhoScored, the left-footed DM is an accurate passer (82% accuracy on ~41 passes per90) who is adept at providing key passes and through balls for his teammates. Neil is comfortable with the ball at his feet, taking an average 53 touches per 90. Despite his relatively small stature (5’10”, 62kg), Dan Neil is strong on his feet and wins ~ half of the duels he is involved in (both aerial and ground). He is also a nuisance for dribblers, who find it hard to go past him (~0.6 successful dribbling attempts against him per 90).

So far this season Neil has been very tidy in defence, conceding only 3 yellow cards and not giving away any opportunity for the opposition to score from his mistakes (0 errors that led to a shot or a goal, and no penalties committed). However, his possession game needs improvement, as he gives away the ball ~11.6 times per 90. His excellent performances have brought him to the attention of Andy Edwards, the England U-20 coach, who gave him his first cap in November 2021 (2-0 loss vs. Portugal).

What we think about him: At only 20 years of age, Neil looks like a truly exciting prospect. His maturity in play is evident and he is without a doubt a player to keep an eye on.

Joe Grayson - Left-Back/Centre-Back - Barrow - League 2

The 22-year old versatile defender has been one of the standout performers at Barrow this season, even if the team is struggling in the lower half of the League Two table. Capable of playing both as a left-back and as centre-back, Grayson made 20 out of a possible 23 appearances this season, all of them in the starting 11 as a left centre-back in a 3-5-2 system.

So far this season, Grayson has contributed one goal and one assist to Barrow’s tally. Interestingly, he is the designated corner taker at Barrow and WhoScored notes his “direct free-kicks” and “taking set-pieces” as two of his major strengths.

In terms of positioning, his season heatmap (left) shows his hybrid position between a centre- and a left-back (on the right, heatmap of Marc Guehi).

  

His passing accuracy is average (75%, on a volume of 48.5 passes/game, 85% accuracy in his own half), and it would be a major area of improvement if he were to join Palace. Regardless, his defensive capabilities are more than evident: he gives away only 0.7 fouls/game, has committed no errors leading to a shot/goal/penalty, and wins 56% of his duels, out of which 61% are aerial. The last metric is perhaps the most interesting, as his stature is identical to Dan Neil (5’10”), meaning that his aerial prowess comes from positioning and timing his jumps rather than outright towering over the opposition.

What we think about him: A versatile defender with league football experience, Grayson would certainly be a player to keep our eye on. His set-piece proficiency would be an excellent addition to our squad, as well as depth at the left-back/centre-back positions. Whereas his passing play can certainly improve, his aerial ability would be much needed in our defense.

Kane Wilson - RM/RWB - Forest Green Rovers - League 2

The 21-year old marauding wing-back has impressed so far this season at Forest Green Rovers (1st in League Two), making a total of 21 appearances, scoring 2 goals and providing 9 assists. Used primarily on the right side of a 3-5-2 wing-back system, Wilson is no stranger to putting in a shift (see his heatmap below), showcasing excellent stamina and endurance.

 

Although he is only 21 (due to turn 22 in March), Wilson has already made 109 league football appearances, scoring 4 goals and assisting 12 times in the process, having debuted at Exeter City when he was just 17. Despite his extensive experience in Leagues One and Two, Wilson showcases two areas in which he needs to improve on if he were to join Palace.

First, his passing accuracy is average (70%, on a volume of 32 passes per 90). Second, he loses possession much too often (~22 times per 90), but his touch volume is quite high (65 per 90). This however translates from his style of play - according to WhoScored, Wilson is a player who lives and breathes to take on his opponent and go past him (2.8 successful dribbles per 90, on a volume of 5.7 dribbles per 90).

His strengths include holding onto the ball (think Jordan Ayew-lite), creating major chances (10 created so far this season) and providing his teammates with key passes (including through balls).

What we think about him: While average on the ball, he makes up for it with his impressive runs and physical attributes. His extended league football experience is most definitely a plus, at least compared to Ferguson of the Palace U23 players. In addition, he could prove to be a more attacking-minded backup to Joel Ward, in the event that Nathaniel Clyne’s contract is not renewed in the summer.