(Photo by Robert Sutherland) 

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Despite (by his own admission) it being a bit too early to really tell what's happening, Mike Wicks takes a look at the data from Palace's four Premier League games this season to understand the changes we've seen so far under new manager Patrick Vieira. 

Okay, so it’s far too early to be doing this (for a number of reasons, not least sample size) but I’m surfing a wave of post Spurs win euphoria and I decided to dig into the data to look for some early indicators of what Palace are doing differently in the Patrick Vieira era.  The headlines are hardly surprising: we’re younger, more prolific and accurate passers and we’re better at getting the ball in the box.  Dig a little deeper, though, and there are some interesting trends emerging.

Attacking

After four Premier League games under Vieira, Palace have significantly improved across key attacking metrics compared to last season.  Our expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes has improved from 0.85 to 0.97, a 14% increase.  That still puts us significantly below last season’s league average of 1.31, but the good news is that our xG number has improved in every game so far, a sign that Vieira and the coaching staff are gradually getting their methods across.  It was interesting to hear Wilfried Zaha - across various post-match interviews - make reference to how confident he was that the new approach would eventually lead to results.

Indeed, our actual goals per 90 minutes (apparently some people still prefer this statistic) has improved even more than our xG, a 21% increase to 1.3 which is bang on last season’s league average.  This is especially impressive given the calibre of opponents we’ve faced so far, facing the then league leaders in each of our last two fixtures.

Curiously, though, our shot numbers have barely improved, indeed our shots on target per 90 minutes is 41% lower than last season.  Again I’ll stress that it’s a very small sample size and I’d be very surprised if we don’t see improvement here in due course (and bear in mind that despite the scintillating performance we only registered three shots on target against Spurs).  The combination of xG improving while total shots remaining stable does imply that we are taking better shots, which is encouraging.

Looking at our ability to create shots and chances, our numbers are up here too, although perhaps not to the extent we’d have imagined.  Most metrics are only up by single-digit percentages and we are still below last season’s league average across the board.

Defending

If it’s little surprise that our attacking numbers have benefited from the shackles being removed, not many people would have predicted that our defence would be even more improved.  Despite our tough start - including free-scoring Chelsea and West Ham - our expected goals conceded (xGA) per 90 is half what it was last season, dropping from 1.51 to 0.75.  The Tottenham game was our best single-game xGA (0.08) since promotion which helps to bring the average down.  Again, this is reflected in our (actual) goals conceded, down from 1.7 to 1.3.

In the context of our strong defensive metrics, perhaps the most surprising takeaway from the analysis is that almost across the board our ‘defensive actions’ numbers are down.  Tackles, blocks and interceptions are all down which may simply be down to our higher possession percentage: you don’t perform defensive actions when you have the ball, of course.  Even with that in mind, it’s surprising to see our pressure numbers so low compared to last season.  The eye test might suggest we were more passive under Roy, when in fact we pressed more frequently than the league average.

Passing

The least surprising thing you’ll learn from this article is that we have been better at passing the ball under Vieira.  However, the difference in the sheer number of passes is still eye-catching,  with nearly 100 more passes per game.  We’re completing those passes at a greater rate too, with our pass completion percentage now higher than the league average which would have been unthinkable in recent seasons.

One statistic which stands out as one of the biggest stylistic changes is the number of cross-field passes per 90 minutes (passes that travel more than 40 yards of the width of the pitch), more than double last season’s tally.  The two main protagonists here are our new centre back partnership of Joachim Andersen (3.82 cross-field passes per 90) and Marc Guéhi (3.00).  Last season our centre backs were way down this list (James Tomkins was the highest at 0.66 per 90) so this is a clear change in the way we play.  As the season develops and Vieira gets better at implementing his new style, this will be a key tactical weapon in our attack, allowing us to get the ball to our full-backs and wingers in dangerous positions.

Ball progression

Regular listeners to the podcast will know how much Adam Sells cares about ‘ball progression’ or the ability to successfully move the ball up the pitch.  The more frequently you are able to do this, the better your attack is likely to be.  There are broadly two ways to achieve ball progression, either carrying the ball without being dispossessed or passing the ball forwards, accurately.  Across nearly all categories we’re seeing improvements and the headline statistic is that our total progressive distance - the total number of successful forward metres per game - is up by 13%.  Slightly surprisingly that improvement is down to carries more than it is from passes, but nonetheless, this has certainly helped our attacking output.

Summary

I’ll repeat my disclaimer from earlier: it is far too early to be drawing definitive conclusions.  This analysis is only worth taking seriously after 10 games or so.  Nonetheless, the early signs are promising because against a series of tough opponents we have been better going forward and better defensively.  The transition to a more ‘progressive’ style of football seems to be happening sooner than expected without a negative impact on results.  It’s been an encouraging start and hopefully, there’s more to come.

A bumper edition of Route to Goal features both of Odsonne Édouard's debut goals. He made only five touches in his cameo appearance, so whilst there is still more to learn about him, what can we learn from his first two goals? Here is Route to Goal #4 & #5.

Goal #1

Individual Brilliance from Zaha

Wilfried Zaha put in his best display against Tottenham, terrorising Emerson on his debut. Morphing back into the winger from two seasons ago, after time at centre forward in the last, he pounces on the second ball from Rodon's header. 

Showing his natural dribbling ability, he drifts away from the initial challenges. Édouard, cleverly holding his run, shields Zaha from Rodon, allowing him to break free. Édouard, the fresh player, makes his move towards the penalty area.

Poacher's Instinct 

With Christian Benteke having worn down and tussled with the Tottenham central defenders for the opening 83 minutes, Édouard gets a chance to get free only seconds into his debut appearance.

Free of the defenders, Zaha accelerates towards the box, drawing the focus of every Tottenham player tracking back. Meanwhile, Édouard, not overrunning, finds a pocket of space away from Davies, giving Zaha the angle to drill in a low cross.

The composure and his ability to strike with both feet were attributes that excited us when he signed on transfer deadline day, and they were on show. From beyond the penalty spot, with only a cursory glance towards the goal, Édouard controls and maintains his balance before putting the ball through the defender's legs. Not as easy a chance as he made it look, an outstretched Hugo Lloris couldn't deny him.

Goal #2

Luka Switches Play

Last season, in a pre-Joachim Andersen world, Luka Milivojević was Palace's most effective long-passing option. Having completed more 30+ yard passes than any other outfield player in his four full seasons at Selhurst Park, the logical switch for Kouyaté in the second half gave Patrick Vieira a better playmaking option with their one player advantage following the red card. 

When Mike Wicks looked at the initial statistical changes from last season, the number of cross-field/switched passes per game has had a considerable increase under Patrick Vieira so far.

With the defence thwarting one of Tottenham's final attacks, Luka receives the ball from Mitchell deep in Palace's half. Adding to the switches tally, with an exquisite long pass, Milivojević springs a Palace counter as he finds Olise out wide. 

Édouard Doubles Up

Crystal Palace may not have invested an enormous fee in acquiring Michael Olise, but they have invested a lot of faith in him to become a potential teenager starter. In his first real contribution, Olise shows no fear as he immediately has Ben Davies backpedalling.

Gallagher is an easy pass for Olise to offload the ball, yet again getting forward in support. As the Spurs players try to recover their position, Gallagher doesn't have to move before spotting the free man in the box, sliding in the through-ball.

Having drifted away from Joe Rodon and with Emerson out of position once more, Édouard gets in two touches before firing on target with his left foot. The hand of Hugo Lloris is not strong enough to deny him.

Édouard will leave his debut wondering if there's even much of a "step-up" to the Premier League from the Scottish Premiership. As the commentators said on the final whistle, "I think Palace may have found themselves a goalscorer."

Facing the ten players of Tottenham, following the sending off of Japhet Tanganga, Crystal Palace had the numerical advantage as they looked to take the three points at Selhurst Park. The deadlock, eventually broken with a spot-kick, was a tidy finish from Wilfried Zaha, but how did they get there? Here is Route to Goal #3, Wilfried Zaha.

Gallagher's Engine

As Patrick Vieira continues to install his preferred 4-3-3 formation as the season progress, the inclusion of Conor Gallagher has taken it to another level. Having been ineligible for the Chelsea game due to loan rules, it took the woodwork to deny him a debut goal against Brentford. Improving on that start, as we looked at in Route to Goal #1 and #2, his brace against West Ham showed his ability to get into the area with late runs.

Examining the base formations Crystal Palace and Tottenham deployed, Christian Benteke tends to drift left towards Wilfried Zaha throughout matches. Benteke gets most of his touches in that area to link up with Zaha, the space is then created for Conor Gallagher to get towards the box, often becoming a secondary forward.

Putting his defensive work rate opposite James McArthur aside, his drive and stamina to get forward gives Palace an additional weapon as they advance. Presumably given the freedom to do so, Conor Gallagher repeatedly attacks the "channel" in-between the full-back and the central defender when facing a back four, often now referred to as the "half-space."
 

Zaha & Gallagher Combine

Wilfried Zaha and Conor Gallagher are averaging a "goal-creating action" every 90 minutes, registered when a player is involved in the final two actions leading to scoring. Such has been their influence in the last two matches. 

Following a Tottenham clearance from a corner, Tyrick Mitchell shows excellent recovery speed to start another attacking phase for Palace as he eludes Dele Alli. A quick exchange of passes allows Wilfried Zaha to get free on the right-wing before going inside to Gallagher and continuing his run.

Gallagher is now in possession and smartly returns the ball out wide to Zaha. Here is where he can show off his ability to run in the channel. Finding the gap between Kane and Davies, his surging run leaves him wide open for a return pass from Zaha. The resulting cross, handled by Ben Davies, wins Palace the penalty and their best chance to break the deadlock.

Zaha Keeps His Cool

Luka Milivojević has been a very successful penalty taker for Crystal Palace, putting away 22 of his 25 attempts in the Premier League. That 88% conversion rate is above average and on par with Frank Lampard's 86%. However, despite immediately taking over other set-piece duties after he subbed in, Patrick Vieira's taker was Wilfried Zaha.

With less footage of Zaha as a penalty taker compared to Milivojević, Lloris guesses the wrong way as Zaha calmly passes it home to open the scoring.