Crystal Palace Transfers by Numbers: Finding a Striker

Written by Mihai Patrascu

It is transfer season, and as described in our Winter Transfer Tracker, we are not expecting massive shifts in terms of Palace players but instead adding depth where it is lacking. One of the most critical positions currently lacking depth is striker

Christian Benteke, with 1.5 years left on his current deal, has led the line well this season, and Odsonne Édouard is an exciting proposition giving the club two solid options already. Yet, with Jean-Phillipe Mateta possibly returning to Mainz 05 early, the club will need a third string to its bow.

Eddie Nketiah and Borja Mayoral are two names heavily linked with the club. Rather than focus on those names, we wanted to look at the top European leagues to lesser-known names that could fit Patrick Vieira's system. 

 dieng banner

The Methodology

Since there is a limited number of free scouting tools available for the general public, we developed and encoded our own scouting tool using public information from fbref.com and transfermarkt.co.uk. This tool gives us total flexibility in searching parameters and player traits.

Palace should be looking for a young striker, ideally outside of their peak years (18-26), who has played roughly 25% of minutes this season (approx 400min) to give us a fair picture of their performances. 

Considering Christian Benteke as an example against other players at his position, he has a high number of touches in the opposition's area, no doubt helped by his aerial ability and physical presence.

His touches are in the 98th percentile, and his shot total is in the 92nd, showing he is converting those touches into shots. Yet, his on-target % is below average, and when you measure his (non-penalty) goals against the xG or quality of his chances, he isn't performing to the level the team would probably like as a pure goalscorer.

CB Stats

The good news is that chances are being created, and in all likelihood, Benteke himself will regress back to an on-target % nearer 40 than 30, like the rest of his career. 

Taking Palace's strikers into consideration, the team's strength and some potential player weaknesses, here is what we are looking at as an initial filter:

  • 400+ minutes played
  • Market value of £30m or less (per Transfermarkt)
  • Age of 18-26
  • More than 3 touches per 90min in the opp box
  • 40%+ on target percentage
  • xG value per shot on target of 0.1+ 
  • Goals - xG per 90min of -0.1 to 0.1

The xG values help show players who have been getting decent enough chances but aren't hugely over or underperforming at the moment.

The First Search

Like a lousy Scout on Football Manager, our first search gave us names of good players out of the team's reach. Memphis Depay (Barcelona), Patrik Schick (Bayer Leverkusen) and Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) may be good players but not realistic. Let's overlook Palace's failed past attempt to get Watkins whilst we are at it. 

Then by taking an estimated value of £10m, a more realistic budget for a third striker being £10-15m in Palace's world left us with 16 players from the Top Five Leagues in Europe:

striker search table

 We have chosen three to focus on these players that could best fit what Palace is looking for in a striker.

 

Bama Dieng - Marseille
(Transfermarkt Value - £7.20m)

 

The 21-year old Senegalese international from Marseille, Bamba Dieng, signed with Marseille in October 2020 from FC Diambars (Senegal). FC Diambars is a Senegalese club founded in 2003 by none other than Patrick Vieira.

Despite being only 5'8", Dieng has been used by Jorge Sampaoli as a pure striker for Marseille. He can also play on the left-wing as an inside forward, adding more versatility to his game.

Dieng has described himself as a true centre-forward. He was given a start against Monaco in September, with Milik and Payet both injured, scoring twice in Marseille's 2-0 win. 

Despite his excellent tally so far (4 goals in 14 appearances), he has played only 522 minutes (7 starts) with limited game time last season of 129 minutes - which makes it difficult to get a complete statistical profile. Yet, the signs are very encouraging if you take his age profile into account.

Despite his low number of minutes played, his impact has been stellar compared to other forwards in Ligue 1 this season. Using fbref's percentile tool looking at per 90min contributions, he is in the 98th percentile for non-penalty goals scored, 99th percentile for shots on target, 89th percentile for non-penalty xG / shot attempted, and 95th percentile for touches in the opposition box.

He takes high-quality shots (npxG/SaT 0.20), almost half of his shots are on target, and he takes nearly as many touches in the box as Benteke. His heatmap shows that he is willing to put in extra effort to track back in defence, despite his raw attacking ability.

dieng heatmap

Passing-wise, he is accurate enough (75.3% accuracy). Still, unsurprisingly for a player who shoots at a very high rate, he is often on the end of Marseille's chances rather than creating for his teammates.

He is accustomed to pressuring opponents, which is ideal for any Palace prospect, especially one that may need to occupy a wide position occasionally - with 14.4 pressures per90, successfully forcing a turnover on 3.22 of those average pressures.

Perhaps the most important guarantee of his quality comes from Jorge Sampaoli, who declared that Dieng "has a lot of explosiveness and a good quality of shot. He's a player with great potential for the club". 

To understand how important Marseille feel Dieng is, they have offered him an improved contract to match his first-team regular status and are said to prepare a contract extension in the summer.

As a prospect, Dieng is a projection, but as is Eddie Nketiah if you are looking for stats-based evidence. His size and style depart from other recent Crystal Palace forwards, as Dwight Gayle is the last natural "poacher" in stature to play for the club - but a variety to a forward line allows for different match-ups. 

Medium-risk in cost - he offers potentially high rewards.

 

Taiwo Awoniyi - Union Berlin
(Transfermarkt Value - £13.50m)

 

The second player on our list is Taiwo Awoniyi, a Nigerian striker who has taken Bundesliga by storm. The 24-year old has helped Union Berlin climb up to 7th this season with his 9 goals in 17 appearances in the league. 

Awoniyi started playing football in his native Nigeria for the Imperial Soccer Academy (2010), where he was scouted by Liverpool, who brought him to England in 2015. He did not make any appearances for Liverpool in his six years due to work permit issues and was loaned out to FSV Frankfurt, NEC Nijmegen, Mouscron, Gent, Mainz 05, and Union Berlin. Following his loan to Union Berlin, which ended in the summer of 2021, he made a permanent move to the German team for a fee of £6.5m.

As for strengths, whoscored.com notes his headed attempts, while we note his ability to pressure the opposition (14 pressures per90 in 2021-22), create shot chances for his teammates (1.90 per90 in 2021-22), dribble (2.65 per90, 1.36 successful), and carry the ball (23 per90). Moreover, he consistently takes high-quality shots (npxG/SaT 0.20), hitting the target on 42% of occasions.

His weaknesses are his passing, aerial duels, holding onto the ball, and defensive contributions. A closer look at his statistical profile supports these claims, as his passing accuracy is relatively poor (65.3% in 2021-22, 69.1% in 2020-21), his aerial duel win rate is low despite his size (29.8% in 2021-22). 

His season heatmap shows that he is unlikely to get back in defence or isn't asked to in his current role. Since he is also relatively young at 24, coaching can improve these perceived weaknesses in the right conditions. He operates in spaces across the front-line as an attacking player instead of a pure striker/target-man.

awoniyi heatmap

Nigeria has called up Awoniyi for the Africa Cup of Nations, which takes place in Cameroon between January and February, meaning that any deal would have to be made before he leaves or put off until the Summer window. In addition, it has been reported that Liverpool has inserted a 10% sell-on fee in their deal with Union Berlin, which could lead to an increased asking price. 

The most conventional forward of the three chosen here, Awoniyi comes with the highest price tag - especially given how recently he joined Union Berlin. 

 

Randal Kolo Muani - Nantes
(Transfermarkt Value - £10.80m)

The last entry in our list is Randal Kolo Muani, the 23-year old Nantes striker. Born and raised in France, Mouani made his professional debut for Nantes on November 30, 2018, in a 3-0 loss to Saint-Etienne in Ligue 1. He has since amassed 61 appearances for Les Canaris, scoring 16 goals. 

He has also made appearances for France U21 and the French Olympic Team at the Tokyo games. Mouani has scored 7 goals in 18 appearances this season, primarily playing as a forward, with a tendency to drift to the right-wing.

muani heatmap

In terms of strengths, we note his ability to track back in defence (as seen in his heatmap), dribble (2.57 dribbles attempted per90), draw fouls (2.63 per90, 91st percentile when compared to other forwards in Ligue 1 this season) - in keeping with Palace's wider players like Zaha and Ayew. 

He has had high-quality shots (npxG/SaT of 0.21) and despite being a low-volume shooter (1.50 per 90min) is clinical in front of goal. This season he has hit the target with 56% of all his shots and is effectively "scoring" 0.28 goals per shot he is taking. That efficiency as a goalscorer in the past two seasons is in addition to his primary function as a shot-creator for teammates (2.22 per 90min).

On the other hand, Muani displays poor passing accuracy overall (65.6%), is quite prone to turnovers (3.65 miscontrols and 3.05 dispossessions per90). This reflects a boom or bust player in attack, more expansive in passing attempts and dribbles. Despite his height (6'2"), his aerial duel win % is only 39.4%.

Muani is out of contract in June, making him a desirable target either now or in the summer - something that Dougie Freedman appears to value as a strategy for transfer leverage. 

 If Palace intends to discuss terms with him, they should be aware that the player has increased interest. It has been reported that Marseille has already made contact about signing as a free agent in the summer. At the same time, AC Milan, Tottenham, and Frankfurt are also rumoured to be interested. At Palace, Mouani would encounter numerous French-speaking players and staff, potentially making his move from France easier. 

Muani is an ideal fit for the current Palace system. He can slot into a wide role immediately, where there is healthy competition for places to eventually move into a striker role towards the end of Christian Benteke's contract. 

As an out-of-contract prospect, the transfer fee will be more cost-effective - but there will be competition.

 

Honourable Mentions

 

Two players who appeared in the initial searches and looked like tremendous prospects are Jonathan Burkhardt of Mainz 05 and Hugo Ekitike of Stade Reims. 

 They aren't candidates for a rotational/developmental striker spot at Selhurst Park as future German and French international prospects. But anyone who likes to keep track of the next-generation stars are players to look up.

 

20 Games In - Crystal Palace's Point Trajectory

Written by Greg Waller

In our previous assessment of Crystal Palace’s performance this season, we took stock after 10 games, and promised to return after another 10 to see if there was anything new we could learn from the Patrick Vieira revolution, and to establish where the club is most likely to finish in the Premier League table.

ppg graph 20gms

As a reminder, we have taken the average points from the past x seasons required for: safety from relegation, a top half finish, and qualifying for Europe. 

 

What’s changed?

 

After 10 games, Palace were pretty much on course for finishing comfortably safe from relegation and just short of a top half finish (1.2 ppg) - much like the Roy Hodgson era. Fast forward the additional ten games and Palace… are pretty much on course for finishing comfortably safe from relegation and just short of a top half finish (1.15 ppg) - much like the Roy Hodgson era.

As the number of games has increased, Palace have dropped slightly in their points per game, but only by 0.05 points. For a team of Palace’s size, and the context of a squad rebuild, a transition to a new style of play, and then injuries and COVID-19, this is not too much to be concerned about. Couple that with the style of play that Vieira & Co. are implementing and there is little dissent around Selhurst Park about the direction the club is headed in, even if the points are not dissimilar to the Hodgson era.

Indeed, it probably further strengthens Roy’s legacy as to how well he did with the squad he had and the lack of investment he worked with to keep Palace up and allow us fans to enjoy (mostly!) the new players and style of football we are watching today. 

 

Nothing to worry about then?

 

That would be nice! This is Palace, after all… You only have to look at Understat’s xG table to see where the frustrations lay:

xPts 20gms

 

Palace have done well in the scoring stakes, but have conceded almost seven more goals than expected, and therefore are a whopping eight points behind where expected, which would put them in sixth place (and well on course for a top half finish and possible Europa League!)

However, this talk of the xG table feels very Brighton & Hove Albion circa 2020/21. There is an old adage in footballing terms that ‘things even themselves out over a season.’ Immediately, the games against Brighton (H), Arsenal (A), Leeds (A), Leicester (H), and Newcastle (H) spring to mind as missed opportunities and self-inflicted wounds, so if the adage proves to be true for Palace this season, then we should expect a few more games to go in our favour when they are perhaps not expected to, right? Well, this will be the next thing to look out for over the upcoming games: our away form.

Palace are 15th in the away form table (six points) and 6th in the home form table (17 points). This is probably fine when you remember that Palace’s away games thus far have included Stamford Bridge, the Etihad, the Emirates, Anfield, Old Trafford, and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, whilst away games at Burnley, Leeds, and West Ham yielded a total of two points (with four from Man City and Arsenal). Essentially, Palace are going to need to put in some big away performances in the second half of the season against the teams directly around them, which is probably a position you would not want to be in when your number one priority as a club is to avoid relegation. 

 

Any caveats?

 

Don’t let this detract from what a fine job Vieira has been doing! Despite the points tally not reflecting how much Palace have improved from a footballing point of view, the green shoots are there for all to see the potential the club and the squad has.

Palace have also had the away game versus Watford postponed to to COVID on the away team’s part, and if that game went as FiveThirtyEight predicted at the time, Palace would have an additional three points and feeling even more comfortable with just another 13 points required to secure safety - and with Norwich and Newcastle already looking like they have too much of a mountain to climb, it would be a remarkable collapse to end up in the relegation zone. These postponements have led to some clubs having up to three games in hand on Palace, though - something else to keep an eye on.

We’ll be back in ten games time to see where Palace are sitting ahead of the final stretch of the season (and hopefully with an FA Cup run underway!)

 

It is Michael Olise's Time to Shine at Crystal Palace

Written by Brian Matovu

After a star performance off the bench in the New Year's Day defeat at home to West Ham, Brian Matovu wonders what the rest of the season looks like for Michael Olise at Palace.

When Michael Olise signed for Crystal Palace earlier this summer, Eagles fans were excited to see how the 20/21 Championship Young Player of the Year would fare in the best league in the world. However, the transition to the top flight hasn’t been as smooth as he may have hoped.

Since joining the south London side from Reading, first-team opportunities have been limited for Olise. Nonetheless, it is still very early on in his Palace career, so there should be no cause for concern at this point from both sides. Although we are yet to see the best of Olise, he has shown glimpses of his quality in the final third when given the chance. 

Royal Background

Olise, like many others before him, started his youth career with Chelsea. He then had a stint at Manchester City before joining Reading where he progressed through the ranks at the Berkshire club.                              

Olise very quickly impressed at the Royals, and due to his breathtaking ability, he was handed his first-team debut in March 2019 against Leeds United at  the age of just 17. He enjoyed more minutes in the 19/20 season but it was the 20/21 season where Olise would become a regular starter and engrave his name as one of the Championship’s best players. 

At just 19, Olise played 44 of the 46 Championship games, accumulating 7 goals and 12 assists in the process and he was just one of six players to reach double figures in assists. Additionally, he was the leading player under the age of 21 for most chances created across Europe’s top five leagues plus the Championship that season.

His eye-catching dribbling ability, dead-ball quality and flair combined with an eye for a killer pass in the final third is what made Olise stand out from the rest. Due to his impressive performances, the promising youngster collected a trio of accolades: EFL Young Player of the Season, and inclusion in the Championship Team of the Season as well as the PFA's Championship Team of the Year.

Move to Palace

After his superb breakthrough season, there was interest from a host of clubs for his signature but Palace were the ones to trigger his £8m release clause. An absolute steal for a player of his level of talent. 

The move had added significance as it marked the first signing of Patrick Vieira’s tenure at the club. The former Arsenal captain spoke highly of Olise’s ability and said: “We have the tools in our football club to make him a better player, and we’ve known him quite well because he’s a player the football club have been following for a long time.”

Limited Minutes

The step up from the Championship to the Premier League is always a challenge and although Olise has looked comfortable adapting to the physical demands of the Premier League when he has played, he has only managed to start one game this season with all his other minutes coming off the bench. 

Olise, who is an attacking midfielder by trade, can also play on the flanks which is where he has been primarily used by Vieira this season. Given that Wilfried Zaha generally occupies a starting spot on the left, Olise’s best route into the squad seems to be on the right-hand side where Jordan Ayew has played for much of the season.

For large parts of the season, Ayew has come under heavy scrutiny due to his lack of end product with calls for Olise to get more game time. Ayew, who has played 1,013 more Premier League minutes than Olise, has only registered one goal and two assists. Whereas Olise has contributed to two goals and three assists meaning that he has been involved in a goal on average every 63 minutes, the best return of any player in the Premier League with at least 300 minutes played, which begs the question as to why Olise has been struggling to accumulate more minutes this season.

Although Ayew has struggled for form at times this season he has arguably been Palace’s best player throughout December. Vieira has continued to show faith in the Ghanaian and has commended his work rate to help the team out defensively:“He is sacrificing himself for the team, he is working hard and that is what we need” said Vieira.

As impressive as Olise looks, defensive work rate is arguably a key weakness in his game. Additionally Ayew is a very intelligent player and is good at winning free kicks that relieve pressure and create dangerous set piece opportunities. This is evident through the Ghanaian being the second most fouled player in the league this season only behind team-mate Zaha. 

Slow and steady

After Olise made his debut coming on as an 86th minute substitute in the 3-0 win over Tottenham in early September, the Palace boss said: “He’s a really good talent, a really special talent. We know at the same time though that talent is not enough. He will need to express that talent around a collective.”

"We need a lot of time to keep developing him. He did really well in the Championship, but the Premier League is a different level. He will need time to adapt himself and he will need time to understand the level.”

It seems as though Patrick Vieira is taking the slow and steady approach with the talented youngster, similar to how predecessor Roy Hodgson slowly embedded in Ebere Eze after he made the move from QPR, also in the Championship, to Palace in the summer of 2020.

However, every time Olise has come on he brings excitement when he gets on the ball and has the intelligence to pick out killer passes.Derby County’s Curtis Davies, who came up against Olise in the Championship, said: “This lad has got so much ability. His individual ability to take the ball past people, to run with the ball, close feet, [he has got] everything.”

Zaha has recent added: “He is technically ridiculous, so I know when he gets the ball, I’ve just got to get into space and he’ll find me. That makes a massive difference knowing there’s players like that we can bring on.

In his limited amount of minutes, he inspired the comeback against Leicester where he notched his first goal for the Eagles. Also, he has racked up two assists setting up Edouard and Conor Gallagher against Arsenal and Manchester City away respectively, and of course grabbed a goal and assist in the New Year's Day 3-2 defeat to West Ham off the bench.

It is clear that Olise may still have some learning to do but I believe that a player of his ability should be starting sooner rather than later. It is evident that from his Reading days and his early spell at Palace that he has an abundance of talent and will cause any defence serious problems when they come up against him.

However, the Eagles do have a very talented young squad where there is fierce competition for starting places. Olise, whose prefers to play centrally, has seen that position occupied by Gallagher, who has arguably been Palace’s player of the season so far. Also, with Eze back to full fitness he’s also another extremely talented player who will be vying for that starting central spot. 

Palace fans would love to see more of Olise, his talent is undeniable. With adaptation to the rigorous demands of top flight football and further application on the pitch, it is only a matter of time until he establishes himself as a regular for the Eagles. His time will surely arrive soon as Ayew and Zaha head off to the African Cup of Nations with Ghana and Ivory Coast respectively. The Palace starlet will be relishing the challenge at SE25, now it’s down to him.


 

Crystal Palace 3 - 1 Everton - Match Takeaways

Written by Alex Pewter

Gallagher FK2

 

FINALLY.. a Win

 

The growing nerves after three consecutive defeats have been dissipated, at least for now. Everton has some exceptional footballers in their squad, yet they are a poor "team" - as evidenced in their performance at Selhurst Park. 

Despatching poor teams hasn't been Palace's forté, and the fact they almost gave away a 2-0 cushion was probably a good reflection of that. Having dominated proceeding for the best part of the game, a lack of focus allowed Everton back into a match that should have been a straightforward victory. 

An exceptional low-save from Vicente Guaita from Anthony Gordon's driven shot, followed by a captivating curling effort from Conor Gallagher (who remembered to hold down the finesse button), swung the result comfortably back in Palace's favour in the final stages, allaying the fears of a late equaliser. 

That third goal does oddly mean Palace are yet to hold onto a single goal-lead and win, which eventually they will need to do, but it was an emphatic way to send the crowd home.

ppg post everton

The result does take Palace's points-per-game trajectory away from that "relegation" mix of 38-40 points, which remains the ultimate goal for this team. 

 

Gallagher Caps Mixed Attacking Display

 

You must never fall in love with a loan player, but if Palace fans only get to experience another 21 games from Conor Gallagher in (diagonal) red and blue, the games should be cherished. 

At times, much like in this fixture, Palace has struggled to capitalise on good attacking positions. The passing can seem a bit disjointed around the opposition's area, the cross may be wayward, or the wrong option is taken. Yet time and again, Conor Gallagher appears to find a way to overcome all that background noise. 

Back in his attacking-central-midfield spot, able to roam free, Gallagher was the proverbial thorn in Everton's side. Continually making his way into good attacking positions, Ayew's pass found him in between four Everton defenders, each ball-watching as he cooly struck it past Pickford in goal. 

The second, which couldn't have been struck better, may have sewn up the goal-of-the-season crown from a Palace perspective. There was uncertainty in the game with only a single goal cushion, and another Everton error gave him the chance to shoot, this time from range. Pickford, who must feel particularly let down by his defence, was helpless once again.

 

 

Not to diminish what Christian Benteke has achieved this season, but Odsonne Édouard brings far more energy to the front line as the starter. The team eventually needs to make this count, as the passing when in the ascendency hasn't been intelligent enough. Zaha, who had a few flashes on the ball, flattered to deceive at times opposite Ayew, who punished Everton with his dribbling. 

Late into the second half, the team was particularly wasteful on the break, in one instance turning an excellent attacking position into the counter-attack that Gordon almost scored. However, scoring three times when the team wasn't wholly effective in and around the Everton area is a good sign.

 

Hughes' Long-Awaited Debut

 

Will Hughes finally getting a start for Crystal Palace brings up mixed emotions. There is a sense of vindication for fans that felt he was the right player to come into the team, but it also highlights the wasted opportunity by leaving him out of the last three matches. 

His performance against Everton was mature, capped off with an assist from consistent in-swinging corners. With the team in possession, he looked to drop deeper than Kouyaté to link the defence and midfield that has been lacking, drifting into spaces to create easy passes for his teammates.  

The team only needed him to be economical with other key playmakers around him, which he achieved with a calm demeanour. He cleverly drew multiple free-kicks to maintain the team's control of the ball, which was subtle, but a good display of his experience. 

His flashy pirouette to elude Everton tackles drew applause from the crowd, but after his assist, his most significant contribution was allowing Gallagher to be Gallagher. 

With Hughes and Kouyaté occupying their spots with convincing performances, Gallagher, untethered from the responsibilities of the last few matches, returned to his attacking free role, which paid dividends.

That midfield balance does lead into a single negative. 

Dougie Freedman's acquisition of Will Hughes was opportunistic and good forward-planning to get a value-signing as a long-term James McArthur-like replacement.

That comparison, at least one that we drew when he signed, can't have been shared by the manager - as every central option other than Jaïro Riedewald has been given a run-out before him since the McArthur injury.

It is frustrating to think Hughes could have had a similar impact on the Aston Villa, Leeds and Man United games when it seemed such an obvious choice to make. At least the team has landed on the correct combination now and potentially for the next few seasons.

 

The xG Battle

 

xg palace everton

 

Speculative long-range Demarai Gray seemed to be the only route-to-goal Everton could muster for the bulk of this match until Salomón Rondón's chance and goal distorted the final xG figures. 

The ball that deflected into his path was the highest-percentage chance of the game, despite having an element of good fortune in the build-up. Otherwise, Vicente Guaita's only critical intervention was dealing with Anthony Gordon. His save was possibly the difference between the win and the draw and essential for Palace 'keeper's confidence in a mixed season to date.

For Palace in attack, it isn't surprising that Jordan Ayew failed to score with a "big chance" for the second game in a row. He is the only Palace forward/attacking player that is vastly underperforming against his xG for the season (0 goals from ~2.0xG), despite being in good form in almost every other department. 

Palace did score from their other two clear-cut chances, James Tomkins benefitting from Palace-like defending from a corner bundled in the team's best chance for his first Premier League goal since December 2019.

Conor Gallagher - as we know - was clinical as ever. His tally goes to 6 goals from 5.41xG on the season. 

 

Next Up: Southampton (H)

 

Southampton head to Selhurst Park on Wednesday night in the second of the two "must-win" games. Task one is complete, and there are plenty of positives for Patrick Vieira and his staff to draw upon. 

Joachim Andersen would still be a welcome addition to the passing game despite James Tomkin's goal against Everton. But, unless the team has been specifically planning for him to be reintroduced mid-week, it would seem doubtful he will make a return. 

General rotation would otherwise be expected, especially upfront where Christian Benteke and Michael Olise would make sense, to keep legs fresh into the Xmas period.

Quick Takeaways: Crystal Palace 3-0 Norwich City

Written by Alex Pewter

With more accuracy than a football.london tweet and more sense than a Premier League fixture decision, FYP's Quick Takeaways are back... because no one wanted to read about that Tottenham game:

Edouard Leicester Standing

 

Palace Deliver First-Half Knockout

 

Like a Richard Riakporhe title fight, Crystal Palace delivered a TKO wrapping up the win by the halftime whistle. 

There is a whole debate over whether this game should have gone ahead at all. However, under zero-duress from their Sports Broadcasting partners, the Premier League chose to go ahead with this game and the Spurs match on Boxing Day.

It is slightly suspect that Conor Gallagher, rumoured to have had a positive test before the Tottenham game, would play against them, only to get a positive test in the next round of testing. That said, Norwich, with a very eclectic lineup, clearly had the larger disadvantage playing this fixture. 

If the Selhurst crowd was looking for a controlled performance from kick-off, the opening minutes was anything but that. Quick turnovers gave Norwich plenty of possession deep in Palace territory to keep the defence of their toes. 

A loose Norwich tackle on Will Hughes turned the game on its head shortly after, delivering Palace a penalty. Odsonne Édouard kept his composure from the spot, giving Palace the opening goal in front of the Whitehorse Lane end. 

Mateta's goal from a 30 second counter from a Jacob Sørensen mishit shot, followed by a thunderous Jeffrey Schlupp shot from a tight angle, killed the contest.

Norwich hasn't had many highs this season, aside from Bill Gilmour's 39°C temperature against Aston Villa, so this was a fixture Palace needed to win. They delivered quickly, moving the points tally onto 23 points from the first half of games.


Will Hughes Appreciation Section

 

Odsonne Édouard turns 24 in January, Will Hughes 27 in April. It would seem Palace have landed two players that will be vital parts of the squad for seasons to come as they reach their peak years.

This match needed a McArthur-like assured performance in midfield, and Will Hughes delivered. It wasn't the most fluid statistical passing performance from any midfielder, as the defence had more success picking out the forward runs of Édouard and Ayew with long passes.

Yet, in the centre of the pitch, operating as both the "number 6" in possession and the "number 8" out of it, Will Hughes ended the game with six tackles and interceptions and 23 pressures in his 72-minute outing, tieing Mitchell's consistent defensive efforts over the full 90. 

Having signed without much fanfare, followed by the mini-mystery surrounding his delayed debut, Hughes has proven to be another shrewd acquisition from Dougie Freedman & Co. 

 

Mateta's Farewell Selhurst Debut? 

 

Jean-Philippe Mateta has somehow only been at Crystal Palace for under a year. Underutilised by Roy Hodgson, it is fair to say Mateta didn't deliver on the initial expectations that came from a near 1-in-2 goalscorer from the Bundesliga.

Despite the lack of minutes, playing only the equivalent of 2.5 games in 2020-21, his skilful backheeled finish against Brighton was a goal-of-the-season contender. 

It is fair to say Mateta hasn't delivered on the initial hype or expectations that came from a near 1-in-2 goalscorer from the Bundesliga. Still, when a player only has four shots in his appearances, one of which went in, it is hard to draw any firm conclusions.

The renaissance of Christian Benteke and the signing of Odsonne Édouard has only pushed Mateta further down the pecking order. The talk of his loan-deal being ended early in January seems likely, ending what must be a frustrating time for the striker. 

As an Omicron-induced returnee to the team, his runout against Tottenham was part of an uneventful second half where both teams cruised to a result that was settled in the opening 45 minutes. Norwich would be a genuine chance for him to shine in his full debut at home, alongside Édouard and Ayew in a front three.

Mateta made the most of his first real chance in a frantic first half. A counter-attack following a scuffed Jacob Sørensen effort, Odsonne Édouard was released down the left, cutting the ball back to Mateta, who calmly passed the ball into the bottom corner past Angus Gunn. 

 

This game was Édouard's day to shine in attack, but Mateta did what was required as the target man to help facilitate that, winning aerial battles in attack, protecting the near-post from defensive corners. 

His number flashed up on the fourth official's board with ten minutes remaining. Receiving a standing ovation from the crowd as he returned to the dugout, if this does end up being one of his last appearances, it was a home debut to remember.  

 

The xG Battle

 

xg palace norwich

This week, it is an open and shut case on the xG front for Palace. The penalty, worth 0.76xG, clearly tips the balance in the home team's favour, but they created enough decent chances to take the three points, which is reflected in the shot map.

Norwich did an excellent job blocking many of the chances that fell in the area, but two quality finishes from Mateta and Schlupp had enough quality to get past Gunn.

The net might need some repairs after that Schlupp thunderb*stard.

Defensively, despite showing plenty of nerves (see - that Guaita drop), Norwich wasn't gifted any high-quality chances. For this week, the fans were allowed to rest easy.

 

Next Up: West Ham (H)

 

The relentless winter schedule rolls on into the new year as West Ham visits Selhurst Park. 

Despite a couple of recent losses, David Moyes' team has been having another exceptional season chasing the Champions League places in 5th. 

Joachim Andersen's late injury departure against Norwich will be cause concern if it was anything more than precautionary. Otherwise, given the covid cases littering the Premier League at the moment, it will be difficult to predict who will be available on either side. 

 

FYP Explainer: Advanced Stats Terms

Written by Alex Pewter & Mihai Patrascu

People may hate reading the same stats explanations repeatedly, but it is still helpful to those who want to read it.

We will continue to add to and refresh a list of our most-used advanced stats terms and ideas on one page as a reference point. Enjoy!

 

SCA — Shot-Creating Actions

 

SCA is an advanced metric that tracks the two offensive/attacking actions that directly lead to a shot on goal.

The attacking actions can be:

  • Live Passes - Passes in open play
  • Dead-Ball Passes - From corners, free kicks & throw-ins
  • Dribbles - Significant carry that leads to a shot
  • Shots - Initial shots that lead to rebounds
  • Fouls - Drawing a free-kick that leads to a shot
  • Defensive Action - Clearance or tackle that leads to a shot

It is important to note that a single player can receive credit for multiple actions, for example, if Gallagher draws a foul and creates a chance from the resulting free-kick. Moreover, the player taking the shot can also receive credit, for instance, if Zaha beats a player (dribble) on the way to taking a shot.

 

As an example of a SCA, a single action led to a Wilfried Zaha shot against Leicester. McArthur's through ball.

SCA example1

 

GCA — Goal-Creating Actions

 

Following the same logic as a Shot-Creating Action, a Goal-Creating Action is an advanced metric that tracks the two offensive/attacking actions that leads to a goal. These follow the same criteria as the above list.

Assists have been a part of football discussion for a long time, but does it paint a fair picture of what happens? Our opinion is that assists are a slightly simplistic/outdated statistic. It overvalues a final pass to a goalscorer and ignores the rest. GCA's capture more actions, which helps to paint a fuller picture from games.

For instance, if a player is fouled for a penalty, the player may get an "assist" in FPL, but the goal has no "assist" in the official stats.

Much like with SCAs, a player can be credited with two separate actions that lead to a goal and a goalscorer can receive credit for their own action that is on the way to scoring.

 

As an example of GCAs, two actions led to Christian Benteke's goal against Newcastle. Gallagher's pass to Mitchell, followed by Mitchell's cross to Benteke.

GCA example1

GCA example2